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CV Research
@CVResearch_
Deep dives on the stocks for the long run. Full thesis and thoughts on substack. By @CKCapitalxx + @VantixResearch
加入 June 2026
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Vicor guided the same quarter three times in 71 days. Jul 21: Q3 up nearly 10%. Sep 21: up more than 20%. Sep 30: up more than 30%, so above $186.4M. The product forecast never moved. Both raises came from one source: royalties on Vicor’s first non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery license. Back out what was already contracted, and that license works out to roughly $28.7M in a single quarter. For comparison, Vicor’s royalty for all of 2025 was $57.4M. $VICR reports tomorrow before the open. Here’s what we’re watching. First, is it a run rate or a catch-up? If the license pays per unit sold, part of Q3 is back royalties on units that already shipped. Vicor has done this before: Q3 2025 royalty spiked, then fell 33% the next quarter. Whatever the Q4 guide implies for royalty answers this. Second, opex. The May license added $4.4M to SG&A for contingent legal fees. Royalty has no cost of goods, but it isn’t free. If opex jumps again, the new license carries the same cut. Third, the product side. Customer feedback on Gen2 VPD, and how quickly the fab reaches $1.5B in capacity. Fab space isn’t what limits Vicor right now. Customers are. Our line is simple. Q4 royalty under $25.4M means the new license doesn’t recur. Anything above that means Vicor now has two engines, and the second runs at nearly 100% gross margin. Part 1 and Part 2 are on our Substack. Part 3 drops after the print tomorrow!
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