Chris Ciovacco(@CiovaccoCapital):Fed funds futures are generally very reliable this close to an FOMC meeting. A 2026 study found FedWatch was 88% accurate even 30 days out, with accuracy improving as meetings approached. With a 25-bp hike now priced near 87%, a hold Wednesday would be a significant surprise.

Chris Ciovacco

@CiovaccoCapital

Founder & CEO Ciovacco Capital Management. Georgia Tech.

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Chris Ciovacco@CiovaccoCapital

2026.09.12 13:45

Fed funds futures are generally very reliable this close to an FOMC meeting. A 2026 study found FedWatch was 88% accurate even 30 days out, with accuracy improving as meetings approached. With a 25-bp hike now priced near 87%, a hold Wednesday would be a significant surprise.