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0xNobler
@CryptoNobler
DeFi Researcher. My tweets aren't financial advices. Follow for alpha 📜
加入 April 2022
91 正在關注    384.9K 粉絲
🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED This week, the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023. I've watched EVERY Fed meeting for the past 10 years, so I thought I knew what to expect. But this one was COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. And nobody is talking about it. For the first time ever, I walked away from a Fed meeting thinking: WHAT THE HELL JUST HAPPENED? Let me explain: Every time Powell held these meetings, he gave specifics. → Numbers → Data → Decision criteria He explained what changed, what the Fed got wrong, what the data showed, and why policy needed to change. It was brutally straightforward. Powell was a DATA-DEPENDENT guy. And honestly, it made sense. The economy went through multiple massive shocks since COVID, and his data-driven approach worked remarkably well. But this week was completely different. Kevin Warsh spent the entire press conference giving answers that felt extremely non-committal. Vague. Talking around the question instead of answering it. Even straightforward questions got the same treatment. "Can you explain what these hikes actually mean for mom-and-pop businesses?" Instead of giving a number or concrete impact, we got another explanation about "maintaining price stability." Again and again, he repeated one thing: HE IS NOT DATA DEPENDENT. HE IS "TREND DEPENDENT." But what exactly is a trend? Multiple data points. → CPI → Employment → Wages → Growth A trend is literally an observation of data over time. So when he was asked what data the Fed was using to make the decision, the answer was essentially: "We don't depend on any single metric. We look at trends." Okay. Then SHOW THE DATA. He repeatedly said to "look outside the window and see reality." But that doesn't answer a question about the specific data used to justify a policy decision. Then came the forecast. The Fed's inflation target is 2%. Inflation is currently around 3.7% year-over-year. The forecast says 2% isn't reached until 2029. That forecast came from his own colleagues. Yet he repeatedly said: "I don't do forecasts." "I don't do guidance." And that the forecast wasn't "his." It sounded like he was distancing himself from the very forecasts coming from the institution he now leads. And this is the biggest issue. People wanted numbers. People wanted decision criteria. Peoplewanted to know what data changed. People wanted to know why a hike was necessary now instead of a cut. Someone literally asked him: "You said six months ago that rates should be lower. What changed in the data?" And instead of answering directly, he repeated the same vague statements. Powell would have simply said: "We assumed X. X was wrong. So we changed our view." That's it. No emotion. No politics. Just math. The Fed Chairman moves markets. His words affect stocks, bonds and the dollar. And those markets ultimately affect our everyday purchases, expenses and financial lives. So yes, this is VERY relevant. We are in new territory. I've spent more than a decade studying macroeconomics and market cycles. I've called almost every major market top and bottom, including Bitcoin's $126K ATH and the stock market crash in 2025. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post the next call here first.
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