I actually agree with Farzad in that I have my doubts about how fast we will see Tesla's geofenced areas scale. Dave's argument that the next-gen Tesla vehicles will be like the Cybercab (no wheels and no pedals) makes complete sense and I agree that after the Roadster Tesla is done with wheels and pedals, but to me it seems the limiting factor will be how fast that type of vehicle can be taken anywhere in the US without restrictions
Even if the federal framework for AVs gets passed and signed into law in 2028, Tesla would still need to be ready to take full legal responsibility for selling a vehicle like the Cybercab to a customer. And for Tesla to do that confidently for an autonomous car that is legally allowed to go anywhere in the country, in any weather conditions, that seems like it's still pretty far off
Let's say we exit 2027 with Tesla's Robotaxi service operating in 25 states. How many people would want to buy a next-gen Tesla that they can only take through 50% of the country? We can reasonably assume that if Tesla does not have a Robotaxi geofence established and live, it's not going to allow Unsupervised to operate outside of those locations. They need to have enough data to be confident in the edge cases, ensuring weird intersections are nailed down to a level where they're ready to take full responsibility
I'm still hopeful that the pace of expansion meaningfully picks up later this year with FSD V15, but there's no way around the fact Tesla still needs to validate each city. Elon just said it on the Q1 call this year. He said Tesla would release Unsupervised gradually to the customer fleet as we feel like a particular geography is confirmed to be safe
He said it's hard to roll out everywhere at once because of city specific edge cases, complex intersections, bad road markings, weather and so on
And of course the time for Tesla to validate each new city will continually come down as the software improves, and I am optimistic V15 is going to meaningfully change the conversation by mid-2027, but until then I'm keeping my expectations in check
I also happen to believe it's going to take A LOT of convincing the general population to buy a Tesla without wheels and pedals when many still have basic concerns like how charging works (which yes is still a thing if you haven't interacted outside the Tesla bubble lately). Convincing them to take a ride in a Robotaxi is one thing, getting them to buy one as their primary vehicle with all of the questions about operational domains, weather, parking/garages and the "what if" thoughts is an entirely separate thing
And Dave is right that Tesla has flexibility in that it doesn't need the Cybercab line operating at full capacity, but if Tesla were to release next-gen models that were also restricted, paired with the Cybertruck not meeting expectations, that would certainly not be an ideal set up for the remainder of the 2020s $TSLA
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