Kai Capital(@Double0Capital):Everyone's watching the HBM gap but I think that's not it. CXMT's HBM is captive to Huawei, a market MU is already banned from, so no TAM overlap. The threat is commodity DRAM, but the number people quote is wafer capacity roughly at 11%. By bits CXMT is roughly at 9%. Older nodes, fewer bits per wafer. Wafer share flatters the threat. And 15% isn't the scary number, it's essentially the survival number. Counterpoint calls it the threshold CXMT has to cross to fund next-gen tech, and has them at 11% in 2028. Supply storm is a 2028-29 question, not a today question.

2026.07.27 06:10

Everyone's watching the HBM gap but I think that's not it. CXMT's HBM is captive to Huawei, a market MU is already banned from, so no TAM overlap. The threat is commodity DRAM, but the number people quote is wafer capacity roughly at 11%. By bits CXMT is roughly at 9%. Older nodes, fewer bits per wafer. Wafer share flatters the threat. And 15% isn't the scary number, it's essentially the survival number. Counterpoint calls it the threshold CXMT has to cross to fund next-gen tech, and has them at 11% in 2028. Supply storm is a 2028-29 question, not a today question.