註冊並分享邀請連結,可獲得影片播放與邀請獎勵。

Finn Stockinger
@FinnStockinger
Analyst. Investor. Early where the market is late.
加入 December 2025
653 正在關注    17.5K 粉絲
This is an interesting $AAOI update from @JonahLupton, but one thing in particular caught my attention: “Demand is not the problem. Capacity is.” That’s a very important distinction. If hyperscalers are already willing to sign LTAs and AAOI is saying it could win additional business if it simply had more capacity, then the $600M ATM starts to look less like “raising money because the business needs it” and more like raising capital to remove the bottleneck. And I think there’s another piece here that the market may be underestimating. AI infrastructure is becoming increasingly optical. Higher GPU density, faster networking and the transition to 800G/1.6T all mean more optical content moving through each generation of AI infrastructure. So AAOI doesn’t necessarily need to win some massive share of the AI market. It needs to keep increasing capacity while the amount of optical infrastructure being deployed keeps growing. That’s the part of the thesis I find most interesting. The numbers are obviously where this gets crazy: $1.1B revenue in 2026 Then $4B in 2027* *Potentially $4.5–5B if capacity ramps faster And potentially $8–10B in 2028 if the growth trajectory continues. This HUGE! But of course execution is the key risk, but if AAOI can actually build the capacity to meet this demand, I think the upside is enormous. And honestly, after connecting the dots, I completely agree with @JonahLupton’s $500–600 target over the next 18–24 months is very realistic. The market may be underestimating what happens when the bottleneck is not demand, but capacity. This isn’t just a $AAOI story either. $LITE and $COHR are saying essentially the same thing - everything they can produce is already sold out. And I think $AAOI will be the one to ramp capacity the fastest.
顯示更多
We had a great call with $AAOI management yesterday... we were very bullish going into the call... we're even more bullish after the call and thus increased our position by approximately ~15%. Management reiterates that demand is not the problem.. it's all about capacity which is why they're doing the $600M ATM offering... they need to continue increasing capacity for the overwhelming demand they see coming over the next few years. It certainly doesn't sound like $AAOI will have any problems hitting their mid-2027 targets (management sounds extremely confident) which implies at least $3.5-4.0B revenues for CY2027. I think there's a decent chance they do $4.5-5.0B revenues next year. $AAOI is already sitting on 2 LTAs from hyperscalers and said they could have several more if they had the capacity. Reading between lines, seeing another ATM offering and knowing their desire to continue building out capacity in Texas... I'll be surprised if they're not doing at least $550-600M revenues per month by end of 2027 with a decent chance they're doing $650-700M (or more). Assuming CY2026 revenues come in close to $1.1 billion... I think the odds are increasing that $AAOI does at least 300% revenue growth next year (CY2027) followed by at least 80-120% growth in 2028. If $AAOI does $4-5B revenues next year and then on track to double that number in 2028... I fully expect this to be a $500-600 stock in the next 18-24 months. We own at least 5-6 stocks that I believe can be 5-baggers within the next 2 years... $AAOI is one of them... obviously they need to execute really well and the upside will be significant if they do :) NFA. DYOR. *We are long $AAOI at @FirstWaveFund
顯示更多