Autopilot Update:
I have reviewed the positions and there's nothing I feel like should be changed. We were well diversified enough that we handled recent drag with minimal downside, and are now positioned for what may be a decent leg up.
Repricing is done from yesterday. The hike was priced in, not Warsh's tone or pressure, so that down and bounce repricing is c o m p l e t e.
Oil price is falling. This means, despite the dot plot on the SEP, the next likely rate hike date (Dec) might lose traction if pass-through inflation dies out. Granted, we have yet to see much of the sustained oil prices it hit economic data in my opinion, but it would be lagging. So the market will be guessing.
AI trades are running. Quad witching tomorrow.
So: hopeful that this sustained period of stagnation and consolidation in prices is being broken out of, but we will have to see if it's a relief rally or a run with sustainable legs. Time will tell, as always.
Adam
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