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Jace|海图夜读
@JaceHoiX
在美股里找价值股 在港股里捡烟蒂 在DeFi里挖十倍金子 🇭🇰 Hong Kong · 耐心是最大的alpha
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完全用AI编程的前提是:你必须对这个业务有非常深刻的理解,能预判AI在哪些点上极可能出问题。并且能准确找到和验证AI产出的Bug。 如果你做个五子棋,或者做个小游戏,完全不需要深刻理解,只要跟它说哪里不对就行了。 但当你做个生产工具时,做管理资金的程序而不是dashboard 时,AI只是一个落地工具。真正的核心差距还是业务理解和审美。 有感于我把龙王的策略截图喂给AI,经过很多轮被坑AI终于还是搞出来了。已经开始小额开跑了。 虽然我已经有套利策略了,但我想用AI看能不能从一个截图直接让它直接做出一个赚钱的策略。发现还是没那么容易,有些坑真的藏得很细,没有做过套利的人不会注意到,AI根本感知不到坑。 有兴趣的人可以试一下,实测下来低杠杆也能做到年化40左右,但资金容量不高,适合散户。 套利经验不足的,建议人工盯着程序跑,即使出错也可以手动快速修正。
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这游戏带劲,而且有粤语原声,剧情也不错。 可以随时暂停,适合看盘时消磨时间。
$pump 的回购都拿来销毁了。 现在P/E已经去到4了。 很多人觉得meme已经过气了。 但现在 $pump 平台的大部分交易都是拿来混币的,这是很刚需的需求,并且每年都会稳定增长。 $pump 的法律诉讼过了的话,3年内5倍很轻松。
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The future of $PUMP We have burned ALL bought back $PUMP tokens, around $370M worth of purchases (~36% of circulating supply), to gain trust with our community. On top of that, we have initiated a programmatic buyback *and burn* scheme at 50% of revenue for the next year to instill trust, predictability, and sustainability for the underlying ecosystem - and to remove as much of the supply from circulation as possible. $PUMP is changing; for the better of token holders, the team and the ecosystem. Learn more about why we’ve made these decisions and where we’re headed next 👇
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我对Manus后续的四种现实推演路径: 路径 A(最可能,60%概率):象征性合规 + 实质照旧 Meta 法务出一份声明,对中国境内尚存的关联实体(如北京蝴蝶效应科技有限公司)做注销或股权剥离,形式上"撤销"对境内主体的收购关系。但新加坡 Butterfly Effect 与 Meta 的交易实际继续,因为这本来就是境外法人之间的行为。中国监管面子拿到、Meta 里子拿到。这种"双方各自宣布胜利"的处理方式,过去在跨境案例中很常见。 路径 B(次可能,25%):进入冷战式僵局 Meta 拒不执行,监管启动信用惩戒,把 Meta、肖弘、相关投资机构(真格、腾讯、Benchmark、HSG)拉入不良信用清单。Meta 在中国本来就没什么核心业务(仅广告收入),损失有限;但腾讯作为 B 轮投资人会非常尴尬,被迫切割。 路径 C(10%):升级为不可靠实体清单 + 数据安全审查 若监管要表达更强硬态度,可同步启动《数据安全法》下的数据出境审查,认定 Manus 早期在中国境内训练所用数据出境违规。这会牵出更广泛的连带责任。 路径 D(5%):交易实质性逆转 要求 Meta 把 Manus 卖回中国实体或彻底退出。但鉴于 100 人团队和核心代码都在新加坡,几乎没有可执行性。
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现在项目方(庄家)的币上了币安合约相当于包了一个澳门赌场的贵宾厅。 贵宾厅(代币)的名字叫什么不重要。 重要是大涨大跌,把场子搞热,吸引足够多赌客(韭菜)的目光。有人来赌了,庄家自然有一百零八种方式来收割赌客。
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昨晚11点刚发过这个,凌晨2点就收网了 $TRADOOR 你要去赌,你起码玩点公平的,这种你上20wu+仓位 庄能给你玩的死死的,所以就不要看这种 DEXE GUA 都属于这种,包括之前的ARIA 都是一家的操盘手法 玩点新的,别玩垃圾 如果你开大仓位去做空能赚到钱,你当我没做 只能说你很强,强的离谱
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kelp:是大哥就来帮帮我。 这太符合Defi风格了,去中心化筹款。 自己不出钱,谁着急谁来掏钱。 高明!
Kelp and @aave have been working closely with ecosystem partners since April 18 to coordinate a recovery effort for rsETH holders. We want to share some factual statements about where we are, progress made, and the next steps. @ether_fi @ethena @LidoFinance @golemproject @inkfndhq @tydrohq @Mantle_Official @fraxfinance and layerzero have each committed in best capacity. We greatly appreciate their contributions. More announcements to follow. The initial shortfall from the incident was 163,200 ETH. Kelp recovered 40,300 rsETH (~43,000 ETH), while the @arbitrum Security Council secured another 30,700 ETH. Following these recoveries, the remaining shortfall stands at approximately 89,500 ETH. Of that remaining gap, confirmed public commitments from Mantle, Stani, EtherFi, Lido, Golem total 43,500 ETH. Kelp has been in direct conversations with partners in this effort to formalize the contributions. rsETH holders come first, and that’s been our priority since day 1. We will continue sharing updates as further commitments are confirmed. DeFi United.
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表面"进展顺利",实际零具体方案。 - 过去4天团队全力推进中(但没结果) - Arbitrum 安全委员会已冻结被盗资金 - SEAL 911 介入调查 - 自己承认"许多工作无法公开" 翻译一下:谈判很僵,对面没谈拢,只能用外交辞令拖时间。用户能不能拿回资金、比例多少、时间表——一个字没提。 真有方案的时候,不会反复强调"用户优先"。
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Community Update The past few days have been relentless. With the support of our partners, allies and community, discussions are moving in the right direction. We want to address our community directly. We are actively progressing towards a suitable resolution. Kelp was built on the core principle that users will always come first. This has been evident in our initial actions and will continue to be reflected in the updates to come, which we aim to deliver in a way that benefits everyone. Over the past four days, our team, alongside partners and allies, has been operating around the clock and engaging closely with all involved parties. We have made meaningful progress across several paths forward in collaboration with key ecosystem partners. This progress is reflected in concrete actions, including measures taken by the @arbitrum Security Council to freeze stolen funds and the swift involvement of @_SEAL_Org's SEAL 911 force in the initial investigation, providing all parties with clear and impartial insight into what occurred. While not all of this is visible publicly, the work continues steadily and with substance. At present, all our attention and efforts are directed towards safeguarding our users and strengthening the protocol. Moments like this are defining not only for us but for the broader ecosystem. We believe it is our responsibility to pursue the most appropriate outcome for our users. We are grateful for the support and collaboration we have received from partners and the wider community. We will continue to share concrete updates through our official channels as they become available. - Team Kelp
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Aave 于 4 月 21 日解冻 Ethereum Core V3 的 WETH。在坏账分配方案公布前开放退出,会产生一个对散户结构性不利的动态。 每一笔撤离缩小流动性池,留存储户按比例承担的坏账敞口随之扩大。最终损失社会化时,留下的 WETH LP 越少,每人分担的削发越重。这不是风险的分散,而是风险向退出顺序靠后者的集中。 这一动态又被信息不对称放大。具备技术能力的参与者可用自动化工具实时监控还款队列,秒级完成退出;散户无法匹配这种反应速度。时间优势在这类场景中直接等价于损失规避能力。 Kelp 仍持有可观的 restaking ETH 储备,LayerZero 具备偿付能力,Arbitrum 已冻结 30,766 ETH。在上游责任尚未厘清前启动解冻,事实上将协商成本前移到了反应最慢的那批存款人身上——而这批人,绝大多数是散户。
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Update on rsETH incident: WETH reserves on the Ethereum Core V3 market have been unfrozen and users can supply WETH to Ethereum Core V3 again. WETH LTV remains at 0. WETH reserves on Ethereum Prime, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, and Linea remain frozen. Aave service providers will continue to work on next steps and provide updates accordingly.
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Aave给出了两种情景下的存款减值方案。 第二种简直把Mantle链的用户不当人啊。减值7成也是够狠的。 @benbybit @Mantle_Official
Update on rsETH incident: @LlamaRisk has published a report outlining the rsETH incident, the immediate actions taken, its impact on Aave, and potential paths forward. All service providers have been working to assess the two potential bad debt scenarios on the Aave protocol. Aave DAO service providers are also leading an effort with ecosystem participants to address any bad debt. This effort already has several indicative commitments from various parties and we are grateful for the strong support we have received so far. We will share further updates as we have them. In the meantime, the full report can be read here:
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总结:锅是LayerZero的,我们只是按照默认配置运行,是他们的内部节点被黑了。 至于赔偿,钱是没有的。大家还在扯皮怎么办。
所以比特币才是真的是数字黄金。 以太坊Eth实在太有用了,有用但gas太便宜了。按现在的gas,1个Eth都够我用10年了。 普通人使用以太坊网络,根本不需要买多少Eth,就像你使用银行的转账服务不需要买银行股一样。
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泡泡玛特有一个不知真假的小故事,创始人团队曾经说想在泡泡玛特做成那种可爱的U盘,也就是增加它的功能性,但是创始人一票否决了。 确实是这样,如果一个东西它具有功能性的话,那它就会被需要使用它的人买一个,或者买它需要的几个,但是一个东西不具备功能性,只具备观赏性,才会被很多人摆起来,收集起来,收藏起来,才具有炒作和升值的空间,毕竟限量盲盒可以炒作,但是没有人会去炒作U盘画高价购买U盘。 所以一个泡泡玛特怎样才能身价很高呢?首先他最好不要具备功能性,其次,最好他是隐藏款或者限定款。
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核心一句话: 我们很安全,协议很棒,错误都是因为KelpDao太信任我们导致的,赔钱找他们就行了。
看来Aave的Umbrella金库质押者也不太想赔钱。 确实,别人的锅,凭啥让Aave的金库掏钱。这个库本来设计只是为了清算流动性不足时兜底,不是为了抵押品被黑兜底的。 之前 @ResolvLabs 就是让金库兜底黑客事件,引发过巨大争议。
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rsETH这次事故的被盗金额虽然不是最大,但外溢性实在太广了。不论哪种方案,都有协议不满意,很容易陷入无尽的扯皮。 现在最好的解决方案就是,有一个强有力的白武士,如 @justinsuntron @cz_binance @heyibinance 等区块链领袖注资ETH到rsETH里面,让rsETH储备恢复1:1。 当然, @aave @LayerZero_Core @KelpDAO 等协议应通过协商增发代币,或者股权,或者直接出售项目给白武士来让别人有动力做这件事。 ETH如现在暴跌的话会增加整个事件的亏损金额,各个协议存款的机构和用户更是人心惶惶,疯狂挤兑提款。解决方案是没有条件长期拖延的。 希望有伟大区块链愿景的白武士早点站出来吧。 @bitfish @VitalikButerin @elonmusk @benbybit @GracyBitget
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看他们的语气,可能初步的方案是让L2的用户接受损失。(不确定) 那Aave平台的损失,保险库都完全足以赔付了。
Update on rsETH incident: According to our analysis, rsETH on Ethereum mainnet is fully backed. Out of an abundance of caution, rsETH remains frozen across Aave V3 and V4 and exposure to the incident is capped. WETH reserves also remain frozen across affected markets including Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, and Linea. Aave is actively validating information and assessing potential resolutions.
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xusd这次暴雷其实动摇了 @MorphoLabs 这类有主理人的新型借贷借贷协议的根基。 这些主理人真的懂吗?还是像Celsius这种随便管管,躺平收管理费最后破产的呢。 没人知道。 现在几个vault的apy都30%+了,感觉大家也有点害怕了。 后续可能会有更多tvl撤出。
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