SHOWCASE: 19 Stocks: 8 Bets v 15 Bets ... WHY PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION MATTERS
this is Altimeter Capital's latest 13F. Brad is one of the best tech investors of all time so we will use him as an example... every quarter people copy this filing line by line (this is for educational purposes to show LIQN BASKETS + SKIM + X-RAY)
VOL is the price of admission in concentrated TMT investing, and ALTIMETER is world class at it
Before the video: 13Fs have real problems for analysis
1: stale. This is the book on June 30th, filed August 14th
2: incomplete. Long positions only. No shorts, no cash, nothing private
3: newly public names like $CBRS and $SPCX have too little trading history to risk model. They're 19% of this filing, so the stats below cover the other 17 names
PORT 1: AS FILED
Vol 30.5%
Beta 2.02
Max drawdown (1y) -19.0%
THIS port in a 2022 like environment = -50% drawdown
Money vs risk (share of the measured book):
$NVDA 23.5% of $ → 23.5% of risk
$CRWV 7.7% → 16.7%
$ARM 7.3% → 12.8%
$META 9.6% → 4.8%
**3 names carry 53% of the risk
PORT 2: INVERSE VOL
*Same 19 stocks, only the sizing changed
Effective bets 8.3 → 15.2
$NVDA risk share 23.5% → 4.7%
No name above 10% of risk
Max drawdown -19.0% → -16.3%
2022 replay -48.8% → -41.0%
Beta 2.02 → 1.92. Same market bet
CONCLUSION: Same 19 stocks. Not one pick changed. All we did was resize them, and the portfolio went from 8 real bets to 15, with half the concentration at the top. In the backcast it didn't cost return, and it kept the same market exposure.
Picking the stocks is what everyone talks about AND IS IMPORTANT. How you size them is how you sleep at night.
*educational only, not investment advice. This is not Altimeter's actual performance: it's built from the public filing plus a hypothetical re-weighting, replayed at today's weights which has inherent leakage
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