Jeffrey P. Snider(@JeffSnider_EDU):The yield curve inverted, and no recession was declared, so people say the curve broke. Inversion was never a countdown clock to a committee declaring a recession. The shape of the curve tells you something about monetary and rate conditions. Treating it as a binary recession indicator throws away most of the information in it. More of this, in person, in October:

Jeffrey P. Snider

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Host Eurodollar University channel. Monetary science reborn. Putting central banks where they belong.

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Jeffrey P. Snider@JeffSnider_EDU

2026.09.07 16:36

The yield curve inverted, and no recession was declared, so people say the curve broke. Inversion was never a countdown clock to a committee declaring a recession. The shape of the curve tells you something about monetary and rate conditions. Treating it as a binary recession indicator throws away most of the information in it. More of this, in person, in October: