Jeffrey P. Snider(@JeffSnider_EDU):Everyone points to investment grade spreads near record lows and says credit is fine. That is the trap. Credit cycles never hit everyone at once. The calm at the top hides the stress underneath. Big investment grade names have cash and steady buyers. Their spreads stay tight no matter what. But look down the ladder. Triple-C spreads are blowing out. The weakest borrowers are losing access first. That is not panic. It is investors getting selective. They still want credit, just not from anyone who needs constant refinancing to survive. And that is how credit cycles begin. Not everything collapsing at once, but lenders quietly walking away from the borrowers who cannot live without them.

2026.09.09 22:00

Everyone points to investment grade spreads near record lows and says credit is fine. That is the trap. Credit cycles never hit everyone at once. The calm at the top hides the stress underneath. Big investment grade names have cash and steady buyers. Their spreads stay tight no matter what. But look down the ladder. Triple-C spreads are blowing out. The weakest borrowers are losing access first. That is not panic. It is investors getting selective. They still want credit, just not from anyone who needs constant refinancing to survive. And that is how credit cycles begin. Not everything collapsing at once, but lenders quietly walking away from the borrowers who cannot live without them.