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Jonah Lupton
@JonahLupton
CEO/CIO at @LuptonCapital and @FirstWaveFund, long-biased hedge fund, focused on undervalued growth stocks that can triple within 3 years, we love big catalysts
加入 April 2008
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$APP now trading below 10x 2027 ebitda if you assume they do $9B ebitda next year and you include the $10B+ of cash they'll generate over the next 6 quarters. $APP will grow ebitda by 50-55% in 2026 and 30-40% in 2027... which means this current multiple / valuation makes no sense. Q3 alt data looks strong... pixel growth has been 3% WoW for the past 2 weeks... strong signal for future ecommerce growth... now heading into $APP's strongest months... very good chance we see $APP beat their Q3 guidance and consensus by 400-600 bps which implies 10-12% QoQ growth. NFA. DYOR.
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Just reviewed most recent alt data for $RDDT and $APP ... $RDDT Consensus (sell side) is at +49% YoY revenue growth for Q3 Alt data is showing +59% YoY revenue growth for Q3 $APP Consensus (sell side) is at +47% YoY revenue growth for Q3 Alt data is showing +52% YoY revenue growth for Q3 With regards to valuations, coming into the week... $RDDT is trading at 18x NTM EPS (not including cash) $APP is trading at 16x NTM EPS (not including cash). $APP is currently trading around $300 with massive support in the $290s from 200w ema, VWAP from 2023 lows and the .618 fibs retracement from 2023 lows NFA. DYOR.
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