One of the reasons why I decided to leave GDM for METR instead of a frontier lab is because I’ve become more convinced that we don’t have things under control and should slow down. I’ve long thought the probability of ai takeover is > 20%, but it feels especially real recently.
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Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.
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