A view from Asia 7 months into the US-Iran war The biggest difference from my last update is the sentiment surrounding crude flows out of the Strait of Hormuz. Leaking is probably not the right word anymore. Asia can now afford to keep runs high as more oil from the Middle East gets out, with the risk shifting to the sellers as cargoes are basis FOB STS Fujairah. Japan and Korea have also increased US crude imports for end Oct onwards deliveries). On the refining side, I haven't heard any new updates on Jizan. Russia refining remains disrupted. US is already doing its best to run max and defer turnarounds where possible. China seems to be back at higher runrates, but it's far from offsetting the total refining losses from the Middle East and Russia. On 27 Feb, Singapore diesel prices were around $94/bbl and mogas around $80$/bbl. Fast forward today, that number is now $154/bbl and $110/bbl, which is 64% and 38% increase respectively. The average consumer has felt some pain but some governments have stepped in to subsidize some of the price increases. Malaysia for example has introduced a shared monthly quota for diesel at RM2.10/litre at retail stations since July. The unsubsidized rate is RM4.72/litre! It feels like we have reached some sort of acceptance towards higher diesel and gasoline prices. But as I survey the global refining system, it still feels very vulnerable, particularly to meet diesel demand heading into winter season in Europe. At least for Asia, we are looking to be in better shape than we were back in March for as long as those crude barrels get physically shipped safely into our region. #oott#