The amount of negativity on the timeline about AI just reinforces how early and non-consensus we still are There are basically 2 arguments: 1. Enterprises aren’t getting ROI and will stop or slow spending 2. The financing of AI buildout is a bubble that will pop And to give the bears and skeptics credit, there is some evidence that supports these arguments But these arguments mostly miss the forest through the trees Enterprise ROI isn’t immediate and in many cases AI spend will be existential and table stakes (see my pinned article for a detailed breakdown on this) So just because a McKinsey or MIT study that is already dated says that many pilots are failing doesn’t mean enterprises are going to drop AI adoption efforts - all you need to do is look at the Anthropic revenue run rate to see the spend continues to happen at unprecedented rates And on the financial circularity that many think will create a meltdown like the 2008-09 mortgage crisis, you obviously weren’t close to that situation otherwise you would see how very different it is I spent the better part of 2007-2012 right in the middle of that crisis and it’s cleanup - these two things are not the same Are there concerns we should be monitoring on the financing side? Absolutely, and history tells us risk will get pushed as far down the curve as possible until something breaks But the warning signs right now are not even close to flashing red When you see reports of datacenters that are empty, large GPU contracts going unrenewed or being cancelled, and solvency issues among capacity providers - then you can start to compare it to 2008-09 If you think we’re close to that situation, I encourage you to listen to or read the Coreweave and Nebius earnings from the past week - we’re not even close So the base case for me right now is that we remain in the early innings of AI buildout and adoption, and enterprises that lean into AI will be the standouts and their performance will drive all other enterprises to up their adoption game, all of which fuels the already insane demand we see and supports the continued expansion To those that still remain negative and skeptical, I’ll see you on the other side of the trade