The Kobeissi Letter(@KobeissiLetter):It's like clockwork. The 10Y Note Yield is now above 4.50% for the first time since June 2025. This is the same level that resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025. Meanwhile, rate HIKES are now the base case for the Fed's expected next move. As a result, average rate on 30Y mortgage in the US is nearing 7% and inflation is at a fresh 3-year high. Seemingly overnight, "higher for longer" interest rate policy is back. How long can this last?

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

2026.05.15 03:43

It's like clockwork. The 10Y Note Yield is now above 4.50% for the first time since June 2025. This is the same level that resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025. Meanwhile, rate HIKES are now the base case for the Fed's expected next move. As a result, average rate on 30Y mortgage in the US is nearing 7% and inflation is at a fresh 3-year high. Seemingly overnight, "higher for longer" interest rate policy is back. How long can this last?