The Kobeissi Letter(@KobeissiLetter):The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion. Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher. This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense. In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion. That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost. This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago. The bond market matters more now than ever.

2026.09.25 13:50

The last time US Treasury yields were this high, total US national debt stood at just $8.9 trillion. Today, US debt stands at $40.1 trillion. That's +$31.2 trillion more, or over 4.5 TIMES higher. This means every 1 percentage point in the average cost of servicing the debt now translates to ~$401 billion per year in interest expense. In 2007, the same 1 percentage point translated to just ~$89 billion. That’s an additional ~$312 BILLION in annual interest expense for every percentage point increase in borrowing cost. This is a vastly different situation than it was 19 years ago. The bond market matters more now than ever.

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

2026.09.24 23:54

It's official. As the bond market "meltdown" accelerates, the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US is up to 7.45%. That's up +150 basis points in 6 months and the highest since 2023, when inflation was at 6.4%+. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)