Golden Gate Institute chairman @snewmanpv reveals why AGI could arrive as soon as next year, while truly transformative superintelligence could still be 5-10 years away: "Helen Toner’s talk this year was titled Minimum Viable Superintelligence. People talk about superintelligence and everyone means something different by it, and historically that’s been fine ’cause it’s always been way out in the future." "AGI has kind of ceased to be a useful term because it’s now close enough that the differences in what people mean by it overwhelm the value of the term." "She tried to define the minimum level of superintelligence that would actually start to have those profoundly transformational effects. Her estimate was 5 to 10 years out, which is also kind of how I think." @GoldenGateInst