METR's @parvmahajan0 reveals Anthropic is now making two years of AI progress in just one, with AI itself likely driving much of the 2x acceleration: "This was a pilot high access exercise in which we tried to study what is the rate of AI R&D acceleration inside Anthropic, and how much is AI contributing to that acceleration." "We see this sustained 2x acceleration among historical trends." "So since about late 2025 up until now, we're seeing twice the rate of progress, two years of AI progress in just one year. And we think that currently this is mostly due to AI, although the evidence is very uncertain." “We also don't see very obvious causes of strong diminishing returns. So we were not able to rule out fast acceleration, although again, the evidence is uncertain, and we weren't ruling in very fast acceleration either." @METR_Evals