Merkle3s 每周三件事:
1️⃣ Fed 观望
经济很热、通胀更热,联储却选择按兵不动
👉 10/28 FOMC 以 10-2 票维持利率 3.75%-4.00% 不变,两名委员投反对票要求加息
👉 9 月 PCE 同比 3.6%、核心 PCE 3.1% 远超 2% 目标;Q3 GDP 增速 3.4% 超预期;消费者信心 91.7 大超预期
👉 12 月加息概率升至 ~75%;本周五 10 月非农、下周二 10 月 CPI,两个数据将决定 12 月走向
2️⃣ 华尔街上链
ICE 投资 Trade[XYZ],要把 Hyperliquid 永续搬进美国合规框架
👉 10/29 ICE(纽交所母公司)战略投资 Trade[XYZ],将 Hyperliquid 链上永续引入美国合规市场,覆盖加密/美股/商品/外汇 24/7 交易
👉 通过持牌 FCM + KYC、独立清算所隔离风险;OKX 合资公司做分销渠道,待 CFTC 审批
👉 HYPE 当日暴涨 20% 突破 96 美金后回落至 84;Stan Druckenmiller 发首条 X 帖宣布投资
3️⃣ AI 巨头 IPO 前夜
Anthropic 递交 S-1/A,链上盘前永续已开赌
👉 11/2 提交 S-1/A 附 Q3 财报:Q3 收入 170 亿美金(同比 +1100%),GS/MS 承销,目标估值 1.5-2 万亿美金
👉 TradeXYZ 上线 xyz:ANT 永续(10x 杠杆,开盘 $138 跌至 $110),Hyperliquid HIP-3 也有 ANTH 合成市场
👉 最早下周路演、Polymarket 押 1.5-1.75 万亿区间的概率最高
Merkle3s Weekly — Three Things You Need to Know
1️⃣ Fed On Hold
The economy runs hot, inflation runs hotter — and the Fed chose to do nothing.
👉 Oct 28 FOMC held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10-2 vote; two dissents demanded a hike.
👉 Sep PCE 3.6% YoY, core 3.1% — miles above the 2% target; Q3 GDP 3.4% beat; consumer confidence 91.7 smashed expectations.
👉 Odds of a December hike jumped to ~75%; Friday's Oct jobs and Tuesday's Oct CPI will decide December's move.
2️⃣ TradFi Onchain
Wall Street just dragged Hyperliquid perps inside the US compliance regime.
👉 Oct 29 ICE (NYSE parent) took a strategic stake in Trade[XYZ], bringing Hyperliquid onchain perps to US markets — crypto, equities, commodities, FX, 24/7.
👉 Licensed FCM + KYC, segregated clearing house for risk isolation; OKX JV handles distribution, pending CFTC approval.
👉 $HYPE spiked 20% past $96 before settling at $84; Stan Druckenmiller's first-ever X post announced his investment.
3️⃣ IPO Eve
Onchain pre-IPO perps are already betting on a company that hasn't even priced.
👉 Nov 2 S-1/A with Q3 financials: $17B revenue (+1100% YoY), GS/MS underwriting, targeting a $1.5–2T valuation.
👉 TradeXYZ listed xyz:ANT perps (10x leverage, opened $138, fell to $110); Hyperliquid HIP-3 also runs an ANTH synthetic market.
👉 Roadshow could start as soon as next week; Polymarket gives the $1.5–1.75T range the highest odds.
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