【 $GLD黄金终于突破了】 昨天亚盘直到盘前就关注到黄金的异常波动，配合锲型挤压结构已经出来了，正好今天这根大阳线形成均线黏连+美人脚走势，这是底部突破形成共识的重要形态信号。 为什么我对黄金如此关注，因为此前在类似位置被骗了两次，而如今黄金第三次已这样的形式而来，我还是准备再次尝试做多。 开盘半小时后，黄金价格异常坚挺，我确认黄金本次突破是真的。 以下是盘前的交易计划和思路，供参考，最近基本没有对一个品种如此确信过，我把后面每个月到期的gld call 买了~我的分析不止技术面，还有期权、市场轮动等因素。 $GLD

【 $GLD黄金终于突破了】 昨天亚盘直到盘前就关注到黄金的异常波动，配合锲型挤压结构已经出来了，正好今天这根大阳线形成均线黏连+美人脚走势，这是底部突破形成共识的重要形态信号。 为什么我对黄金如此关注，因为此前在类似位置被骗了两次，而如今黄金第三次已这样的形式而来，我还是准备再次尝试做多。 开盘半小时后，黄金价格异常坚挺，我确认黄金本次突破是真的。 以下是盘前的交易计划和思路，供参考，最近基本没有对一个品种如此确信过，我把后面每个月到期的gld call 买了~我的分析不止技术面，还有期权、市场轮动等因素。 $GLD

NY Fed President John Williams says he "strongly" supported last week's policy decision and reaffirms the reaction function he sketched out last month. He expects inflation to decline but says "it would absolutely be appropriate" to raise rates if inflation doesn't. "I am quite honestly focused quite a bit on, what are we seeing in the core inflation ​data over the next several months, and is that consistent with a kind of a run rate of inflation moving towards 2% and really on a disinflationary path consistent ​with us achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis by 2028." "My forecast personally is for inflation to come down in ⁠the second half of this year and come down further next year." "If ​the economy is not on a trajectory that will bring inflation back down to 2% ... it would absolutely be appropriate to act to get us on a trajectory that does bring inflation back ​to 2%.” via Reuters @michaelsderby

Morgan Stanley: Cloud CapEx Cloud Capital Expenditure (Capex) Surges > Massive Uptick in 2027 Forecasts: Following recent US hyperscaler earnings, consensus for 2027 cloud capex has jumped significantly. The forecast is now tracking at approximately $1.2 trillion, a growth of around 30% year-over-year. This is a dramatic increase of about $170 billion and 15 points higher than predictions made just before the recent earnings. > A "too conservative" Consensus? While the current forecast predicts a slowdown in growth (to 29% Y/Y) for 2027 after an incredibly strong 2026, the report suggests this may be an underestimate. Morgan Stanley's own estimate is even higher at $1.4 trillion. The authors also note that aggregate estimates for the top 14 spenders have gone up in each of the last ten quarters. > The AI Impact: The sharp increase in spending, which is ~4x the historical capital spending intensity average for the sector, is clearly fueled by investment in artificial intelligence. The text notes that the current 2027 growth forecast of 29% implies that non-AI cloud capex growth would be just 7%. > Historical Spending Patterns: A historical chart shows the highly cyclical and recently explosive nature of this spending. Growth was modest for years, with negative growth as recently as 2019 and 2023, before skyrocketing to a projected 97% in 2026 and then potentially cooling to 29% in 2027 (though, as mentioned, that 29% figure is up significantly from a forecast of 14% just a month ago). $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $META

康宁 $GLW ,非常强势！为什么？基本面投资者会从基本面或者叙事的概念里寻找原因，我这里很简单：震荡区间突破。 上周五盘中大跌近9%，我判断是突破后的回踩，坚决买入正股和两倍做多。

【QQQ 1h技术面更新6.26收盘】 1、6.26开盘1h，非常短暂的跌破前天日内低点704.9之后迅速拉回，连续三天三次摸到704附近反弹，three wedges up； 2、收盘基本回到开盘附近，没有跌破704，这很关键； 3、看盘中走势基本确定，上周五最后尾盘的5分钟是机构调仓、指数调整的技术性被动资金流入所致，不代表真实的意图。即便如此，QQQ仍然守住了704. 4、 $QQQ 下方支撑位置695附近，我个人倾向于不会真实跌破。价格或许会在本周反弹。当下，仍然维持震荡区间的看法，sell high buy low，双边都不会突破。