่จปๅ†Šไธฆๅˆ†ไบซ้‚€่ซ‹้€ฃ็ต๏ผŒๅฏ็ฒๅพ—ๅฝฑ็‰‡ๆ’ญๆ”พ่ˆ‡้‚€่ซ‹็Žๅ‹ตใ€‚

Mike
@MikeLongTerm
Long Term Investor Largest Holding $AMD $PLTR $TSLA Others $XYZ $HIMS $GRAB $TSM $AMZN $NVDA $LMT $ETH $BTC $META $GOOGL $WING $ADBE $BROS Not Financial Advice
ๅŠ ๅ…ฅ July 2020
408 ๆญฃๅœจ้—œๆณจ    27.6K ็ฒ‰็ตฒ
$GRAB | 30-40% & 40-50% growth Projections โœ…๐Ÿ‘€ What $GRAB guided: 2025-2028 => 30%+ CAGR $6B+ Gross Loan Portfolio 2028 Adj. EBITDA => $1.7B Scenario 1 : 30โ€“40% growth PE path: 16.04 โ†’ 15.40 โ†’ 14.20 โ†’ 13.10 โ†’ 12.00 โ†’ 11.10 โ†’ 10.20 โ†’ 9.40 โ†’ 8.60 โ†’ 7.80 โ†’ 7.00 Q4โ€™28: Revenue 1,970M, Net income 800M, Fwd PE 7.00 Scenario 2: 40โ€“50% growth PE path: 16.04 โ†’ 14.80 โ†’ 13.30 โ†’ 11.80 โ†’ 10.40 โ†’ 9.20 โ†’ 8.10 โ†’ 7.20 โ†’ 6.40 โ†’ 5.70 โ†’ 5.10 Q4โ€™28: Revenue 2,560M, Net income 1.2B, Fwd PE 5.10 I believe Grab could grow 40-50% because: ~Taiwan GMV and take rate ramp faster than the $60M EBITDA print implies, as Taiwan GDP is growing extremely fast now! ~GrabFin could grow faster than most anticipated. ~Core mobility + deliveries stay at ~25-30%+ while GrabFin has its J-curve quarters Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
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BREAKING $GRAB Full Investor Update on Atome๐Ÿ†•๐Ÿšจ Note: I was lagging for few mins, so this record missed the first 1 or 2 minute. Anthony Tan CEO ~Grab expectes to 1,000% increase in expanding users growth and lending with Atome Acquisition. ~BNPL Cash loan 16x, BNPL card x4 in consumer, a sizeable consumers finance ~Atome brings >30,000 brands to much broader categories that Grab never had. (I talked abt this for more than a year, will write more later) ~With Atome, Grab is expanding merchants aggressively in many different categories, and grow users to cross sell all services in the SuperApp ~60% Equity with Cash $1.49B expected to close by Q3 2027 + $900m buyback in the next 12 months. ~40% Equity will be up to Atome performance , expected to be 2 years after Phase 1 clos ~New Raised Guidance: 2028 Gross Loan Portfolio >$6B. 2025-2028 Revenue CAGR from 20-30%+(too conservative) 2028 Financial Service Segment Adj EBITDA $500M 2028 Adjusted EBITDA $1.5B >$1.7B Alex Hungate COO ~Ecosystem Participants >50M ~Cumulative transaction >20B since 2012 ~>900 city-level presence Peter Oey CFO ~Accelerating Growth with more mentization ~Ads, Mobility, Deliveries, Financial services to more Merchants, Users, and Drivers in many new categories ~Atome speeds up the Gap that would cost Grab more to build in-house ~It is all about user growth, that will need merchant and categories expansion ~Margin will be much higher as more operating leverage gains as we scale Loan book in the coming quarters/ years ~Target >$6B Loanbook by end of 2028(I think this is conservative) ~Most of this $6B will sit in GXS, Superbank OVO, not on Financial or a capital intensive for Grab, so basically implying a significant growth from customer deposit. ~Raised Guidance (Above) ~Affordability and Groceries/Retail are proven to accelerate growth further ~As we expand more categories, we see much higher growth ahead ~Users will spend more with us over time ~We remain disciplined as we inesting for organic and profitable growth ~Maintain a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity ~Continue to enhance shareholder returns ~Transaction detail below ~ We have plenty of room to grow with Atome ~ We will win with our strong Ecosystem Q&A ~ 1% of our 138M Annual Transacting users, so this Atome acquisition to speed up this growth. Atome is already profitable and generate FCF+. >30,000 brands would take us many years to acquire and costly. Great synergy to add more categories ~ We look forward to work with Atome Team, and hopefully most of them stay with us after 2 years to achieve financial inclusion in SEA sustainably. ~ The largest driver is going to be user growth. A shift toward to improving yield on longer duration loan. Credit models continue to improve. Secret sauce in lending is the credit engine. Atome and Grab together can improve. More Operating leverage to gain long term. ~ Atome has strong profitability. Revenue is expected to grow strong. They are generating very attrative return. ~ 40% remaining equity if Atome grows faster, our on-demand will grow also much faster. So more merchants(more categories) > More users > Drivers > Faster Deliveries growth. ~ Acquisitions are to enhance our flywheel to spin more. To grow Users/Merchants/Drivers. ~ We will have sub-committee at Grab to determine the risk appetite. We will work together in 2 years before Phase 2 on different opportunities as we want to cross-sell Grab Services into Atome 25m MTUs. And many more embedded financial serivces opportunities. ~ We want to get more users in ecosystem, and how we want to keep engagement(frequency). Atome will give us access new users base in different categories that we dont have. We can monetize more effectively as new users join the ecosystem. We can now do consumer loan with Atome (BNPL, BNPL Card, digital products). 30,000 brands are very valuable to us that we dont have today, new penetration. More future merchants relationship to bring to our ecosytem. Very good long term. Atome is worth a lot more to us(ecosytem). ~ M&A Strategy is all about growing our ecosystem faster (MTUs, Merchants, Drivers). With Atome we could scale consumer lending better. We are also doing share buyback. We know our share price is dislocated today so we leaning with more buyback. We continue to make sure our balance sheet to be strong
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