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Milk Road AI
@MilkRoadAI
Helping millions of investors navigate the AI markets. Capitalize on the biggest technological change in history across the infrastructure & app layers of AI.
加入 October 2025
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Where are all the people saying AI isn't bringing in any ROI (save this). Cloud revenue growth across Amazon, Google, and Microsoft actually accelerated to 48% year over-year in Q2 2026, up from 39% the quarter before, and well above the 24-33% range these companies were running through 2024 and 2025. That's the opposite of what should happen in a mature, trillion-dollar business, where growth typically slows as the revenue base gets bigger. The second chart makes the case even harder to argue against. Consensus forward two year revenue estimates for Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft combined have climbed from around $1.6 trillion in 2024 to roughly $2.5 trillion now, with the CAGR versus trailing 12-month revenue rising from about 11% to nearly 18%. Actual Q2 2026 results back this up directly. AWS posted $42.2 billion in revenue, up 37% and its fastest growth in 18 quarters, at a 36.8% operating margin, while Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8 billion with operating income more than tripling and margin expanding from 20.7% to 35.6% in a single year. Azure crossed $100 billion in annualized revenue with 43% constant-currency growth. Now, the skeptics aren't wrong that there's a real gap to watch. PIMCO notes capex will consume roughly 94% of hyperscaler operating cash flow over the next two years, up from 40% in 2023, yet Fidelity points out the capex to free-cash-flow ratio for the broader market sits below 1 today versus nearly 4x at the 2000 dotcom peak, meaning this cycle is still being funded by real earnings, not debt-fueled speculation. That's the real distinction because the infrastructure itself, cloud compute, storage, and AI services, is converting into accelerating revenue and expanding margins right now, even while the broader question of enterprise wide AI monetization remains an open debate. The ROI skeptics are conflating those two very different things, and the earnings data increasingly says the infrastructure layer has already proven its case. And Oracle is set up to be one of the biggest winners of this entire dynamic once its own numbers catch up. Oracle's remaining performance obligations already sit at $638 billion, up 363% year over year, meaning the demand and contracts are already locked in even before the revenue shows up on the income statement. Once Oracle's data centers ramp to full contractual revenue the same way AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud just did, the same margin expansion story that's silencing ROI skeptics today should play out at Oracle next, just on a delayed timeline. Milk Road is tracking each one of the these and if you want to see the exact trades we are making around this, you can come join us using the link below for just a dollar.
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