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James Muninn
@Muninn
I share deep dives on traders and strategies
加入 October 2022
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Selling on the 2nd consecutive close below 20-day SMA isn't better. @RossHaber is not a pure momentum trader. He's more of a purist CANSLIM trader, trading the most liquid leaders. I have a lot of respect for him, and he's surely one of the best in the business. In his blog he argues for using the 2nd close below the 20day, because "One close below is noise. Two is a change in the medium-term trend." I tested this on a dataset of more than 3,000 breakouts from low six figure to high 8-figure traders, 2019 - 2026. I don't think it fits Ross's trades directly, but there's definitely some overlap in the dataset. The extra day came out behind on 1,269 breakouts and ahead on 653. It did not add anything meaningfully in terms of raw profits. It did however extend the holdning period significantly. So is Ross wrong here? Probably not, as he trades a different basket of stocks than what his rule is tested on.. But, the main point here is that it's not only raw profits per trade that matters when evaluating our entry and exit rules.. if we lock up our buying power just to eek out a few more %-points, we could miss out on some of the best trades..
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Check out my latest blog on why I sell on the second consecutive close below the 21-day SMA.