Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Founder of Silver Bulletin: and cohost of Still Counting podcast!
加入 August 2008
1.8K 正在關注 3M 粉絲
@mattyglesias I think this is a case where the surface-level critique is dumb (yes 5% chances should happen 5%) but the underlying sentiment is more that prediction markets are often treated as providing oracular precision when they're often more summations of the (sometimes flawed) CW.
顯示更多
