Nick Timiraos(@NickTimiraos):This paper finds that 90% of the observed rise in the 10-year US Treasury since August 2020 has occurred in the three-day window around US payroll reports or speeches by top Fed officials (the chair, vice chair, or Waller), which accounts for just 24% of trading days The paper finds those days are responsible for 81% of the rise in markets' expected average short-term rate over the next 10 years, which means this isn't about investors getting nervous about holding long-term debt and is instead about markets revising their view of short-term rates.

2026.09.22 13:38

This paper finds that 90% of the observed rise in the 10-year US Treasury since August 2020 has occurred in the three-day window around US payroll reports or speeches by top Fed officials (the chair, vice chair, or Waller), which accounts for just 24% of trading days The paper finds those days are responsible for 81% of the rise in markets' expected average short-term rate over the next 10 years, which means this isn't about investors getting nervous about holding long-term debt and is instead about markets revising their view of short-term rates.

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