$CIFR Barber Lake: bigger lease, smoother ramp, tenant already on site.
$CIFR 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗟𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝗯𝘆-𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗽.
Under the 2025 terms:
1. 168 MW delivered to Fluidstack by September 2026
2. Rent from October 2026
3. Another 39 MW by January 2027
Under today's amendment:
1. Delivery by individual data hall, Q4 2026 through Q1 2027
2. Rent starts on each hall as it is delivered
3. First rent in Q4 2026
$CIFR cited change orders and evolving tenant requirements, and says it is on track with the revised schedule.
The tenant is already inside. $CIFR 's Q2 update described partial occupancy and network racks going in. That is early access for setup. Rent is tied to a finished hall that is powered, cooled and handed over.
Black Pearl already works this way. $CIFR delivered first capacity there in August, two months early, with rent started while the other halls were still in fit-out.
My estimate on the rent math:
1. About 10 halls of roughly 20 MW, since 168 MW splits into 8 x 21 MW and 39 MW into 2 x 19.5 MW
2. ~$383M a year at full run-rate from the $3.0B and ~$830M contracts, about $3.1M a month per hall
3. An even ramp puts ~$48M less rent into Q4 and Q1 than the old plan
4. Each month one hall slips moves about $3.1M
In exchange:
1. 10 more years with a leading AI lab, ~$5.2B added, over $9B contracted
2. $CIFR carries the first $359.3M of costs above the original budget
3. Above that, the tenant repays half over 20 years as extra rent at a contracted return
Rack power for the next GPU generation is climbing fast, which would be one reason to rework halls mid-build. That one is my guess, not something $CIFR said.
I hold $CIFR.
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