Robot Money Regime Update — 2026-05-22 Composite: 0.522 (69.5th percentile) — Risk-On Macro Panel: 0.627 (92.8th) — Risk-On On-Chain Panel: 0.418 (30.2th) — Risk-Off Macro indicators: • DXY (trade-weighted USD): 119.28 — dollar strong — headwind for risk assets • Initial jobless claims: 209.0K — jobless claims low — labor market tight • 5y breakeven inflation: 2.54% — inflation expectations high — pricing in pressure On-chain indicators: • ETH 50d/200d trend: 2.1K — ETH trend unclear • Total DeFi TVL: 81.01B — TVL middling • Stablecoin float growth (90d): 320.93B — stablecoin growth flat Implication: Composite in risk-on territory. Macro support is solid, on-chain mixed. No immediate allocation shift — rebalancing is monthly, not reactive to daily signals. Watch for sustained on-chain weakness; if it persists, next monthly review may lean toward higher stablecoin exposure. ─── Narrative Tension: Macro is pricing growth; on-chain is not buying it. The 63-point spread between the panels is the story today. What stands out: • VIX is collapsing from 97th to 43th percentile — complacency building • DXY at 119.28 (86th percentile) is a headwind while on-chain deteriorates — classic risk-off setup macro is ignoring • Credit spreads tight (2.78%) but on-chain risk-off — credit markets are pricing calm that crypto is not sharing • ETH trend broke down from ~67th to 29th percentile — on-chain momentum is reversing while macro stays strong • DeFi TVL falling to $81.0B — capital is leaving DeFi Bottom line: The composite is neutral because the panels are fighting. Monthly rebalancing is the right pace here — no daily panic, but watch whether on-chain catches macro's optimism or macro catches on-chain's pessimism.