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Patryk
@Solofunk
Director of Research @serotonin_hq • Ex-Messari • Nomad 🌎
加入 August 2015
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Writing reports for @arbitrum, topping the @KaitoAI leaderboard, and being part of the community was a highlight of my time at @MessariCrypto. One of my takes I wrote about in the Messari Crypto Theses 2025 is playing out. @Arbitrum now has a native stablecoin, in partnership with @global_dollar. As $USDG supply on Arbitrum One scales, an (undisclosed) portion of interest generated by the underlying treasuries will flow to the ArbitrumDAO treasury. As I expected, Season 2 of the DeFi Renaissance Incentive Program (DRIP) will focus on driving the stablecoin's growth. Two days after launch, USDG supply is $26.2M, accounting for 0.6% of Arbitrum One’s total stablecoin market cap. Assuming growth to $426M, 10% of the current total, and a 3.5% APY, ArbitrumDAO would generate $14.9M in annual revenue. That is just over the $391.5M in $PYUSD on the network, and about half of the $812M in $USDT0. Those numbers show that scale is feasible, but I don't expect $USDG to reach it quickly. DRIP Season 2 should push supply toward $100M, and likely past it if backroom liquidity deals are in play, but growing into the hundreds of millions will be a challenge. I wouldn't expect that level of scale until 2027. Nonetheless, Arbitrum’s economic engine keeps churning.
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Arbitrum should launch a native stablecoin in 2026. Scaling the stablecoin to become a revenue stream yielding $5 to $20 million annually is feasible. @arbitrum already runs incentive programs to grow DeFi verticals. This is a lay up. Napkin math below.
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