The numbers have doubled in less than a month.
The total crude oil egress via the USN-BL is now 13 Mbpd, with estimated SoH transits at 10.35 Mbpd given that Fujairah and Mina al-Fahal together account for around 2.65 Mbpd on average.
This is partly attributed to Saudi Arabia having to swing back its exports eastwards due to pipeline disruption, but also due to daytime transits via the SoH under additional CENTCOM protection.
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Here's an infographic we shared with clients a couple of days ago for folks to understand. The maths are quite simple.
Our method is to count the daily average of what departs the US Navy blockade line. We then substract from that what we know comes out of Oman and Fujairah. The rest is traffic deriving via the Strait of Hormuz.
Equation: USN - Oman - Fuj= SoH.
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