The key takeaway from this chart is that if the current S-curve adoption pattern continues, the transition away from ICE vehicles in the U.S. could accelerate significantly over time. 🇺🇸 ICE vehicles still account for around 90% of new registrations today, while BEVs remain in the high-single-digit range. But technological transitions rarely happen in a straight line. Based on this extrapolation: • ICE share falls from 91.3% in 2025 to 83.4% in 2030 • Drops to 73.1% by 2035 • Reaches roughly 61.4% by 2040 • ICE and BEV eventually approach similar shares in the mid-2040s • The modeled transition from 80% ICE share to 20% takes about 27 years The important point is that this is not a forecast. It simply extends today's observed adoption curve into the future. What makes the chart interesting is the S-curve itself. Technology adoption is rarely linear. Once EV adoption passes certain thresholds, declining costs, expanding charging infrastructure, greater model availability, and improving technology can reinforce one another and accelerate adoption. So perhaps the bigger question isn't whether the transition to EVs will happen, but when the U.S. enters the steepest part of the S-curve.