HURRICANE ISAIAS UPDATE, 11:00PM ET PATH • NEW: Advisory 10 (11pm ET). Cat 2, 105 mph (up from 100), 969 mb, ~260 mi S of the Mississippi River mouth, moving NE 14 mph. NHC now says Isaias "could briefly become a major hurricane early Friday"; still forecast a dangerous hurricane at landfall late Friday/early Saturday. • Warnings unchanged: Hurricane Warning Ocean Springs, MS to Bay/Gulf County Line, FL. Storm Surge Warning Mississippi River mouth to Suwannee River. Surge 5-7 ft Dauphin Island, AL to Indian Pass, FL. Rain 4-8 in, isolated 15 in across southern AL, FL Panhandle, Big Bend, SW GA. • X chatter converging on landfall between Ft. Morgan and Destin Friday evening/early Saturday (unconfirmed). RIGS • Unchanged. MMA report 11am CT (latest): 62.89% Gulf oil shut in (1,282,879 bpd), 57.35% gas shut in (1,127 MMcfd). 121 of 371 platforms evacuated. Next MMA update expected 1pm CT Friday. • Company specifics unchanged: Shell (Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, Appomattox), Chevron (4 facilities), Harbour, BP (Na Kika, Thunder Horse). REFINERIES • No shutdown announced. Chevron Pascagoula (356k bpd) still most exposed. Vertex Saraland and Hunt assets near track. • NEW (CNN): US refineries running hard to offset war-driven outages; SPR at lowest since 1982. Yawger: "could be a gigantic event." Jefferies: "fuel supply event hitting a system already stretched by the Iran war"; diesel $6.30 vs $3.68 a year ago (zerohedge). TERMINALS/PORTS • No new info this cycle. Standing: Mobile vessel ops suspended, Mobile Bay shutting down, VPS airport closed, Gulf Shores airport closing 12pm CT Friday. DAMAGE • Pre-landfall, no damage reports. Evacuations stand: mandatory in six FL panhandle counties, Dauphin Island west end, Baldwin County coastal AL; Okaloosa tourist evacuation from noon Thursday; state offices closed Friday in 9 AL counties and Leon County FL. MARKET READ • Thursday session settled hot: Brent +4.8% to ~$105, WTI up. Iran-war drivers dominating: record 10 tankers struck Sep 28-Oct 4 (CNN), Hormuz transits fell to 7 Tuesday (two-month low), Qatar tanker hit with casualties (UKMTO), Houthis damaged 2 Saudi airports, The Atlantic: White House asked Pentagon for Iran strike options ahead of midterms. • Overnight: Brent $103.53-103.78 (-0.7%), WTI $90.97-91.06 (-0.6%) after Trump said no Iran attack before the Nov 3 midterms. Iran's Araqchi: Tehran reviewing a US response that could reopen Hormuz within seven days (Reuters). • AAA: diesel $6.28/gal, regular $4.36/gal. Gulf shut-ins (62.9%) remain secondary to Hormuz as the price driver.