Jurrien Timmer(@TimmerFidelity):The real 10-year yield is now 2.67% and is above the US economy’s potential real GDP growth rate of 2.5%. That is a significant and somewhat troubling milestone. Yes, margins are still rising and credit spreads remain tight and earnings are still booming, but investors are not paying up for what well may be peak earnings growth. The result is an S&P 500 that has treaded water since early June, with only 29% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 53% above their 200-day MA.

Jurrien Timmer

@TimmerFidelity

Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine.

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Jurrien Timmer@TimmerFidelity

2026.09.21 22:32

The real 10-year yield is now 2.67% and is above the US economy’s potential real GDP growth rate of 2.5%. That is a significant and somewhat troubling milestone. Yes, margins are still rising and credit spreads remain tight and earnings are still booming, but investors are not paying up for what well may be peak earnings growth. The result is an S&P 500 that has treaded water since early June, with only 29% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 53% above their 200-day MA.