Jurrien Timmer(@TimmerFidelity):Earnings season is off to a good start with 122 companies reporting so far and 80% beating estimates by an average 560 bps. Trailing earnings are up 33% from a year ago and the n12m estimate is up 39%. The difference between the n12m estimate and trailing earnings is 19% and decelerating. That suggests that a peak in the second derivative is forming. Investors rarely pay up for peak earnings growth, and this in part explains why the P/E-multiple is down 16% from a year ago. The other factor is of course the rising cost of capital.

Jurrien Timmer

@TimmerFidelity

Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine.

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Jurrien Timmer@TimmerFidelity

2026.10.29 21:06

Earnings season is off to a good start with 122 companies reporting so far and 80% beating estimates by an average 560 bps. Trailing earnings are up 33% from a year ago and the n12m estimate is up 39%. The difference between the n12m estimate and trailing earnings is 19% and decelerating. That suggests that a peak in the second derivative is forming. Investors rarely pay up for peak earnings growth, and this in part explains why the P/E-multiple is down 16% from a year ago. The other factor is of course the rising cost of capital.