Warren Pies(@WarrenPies):At 38%, I think a September hike is underpriced here. Personally, I believe that holding is the appropriate policy. However, the committee is increasingly feeling the political pressure of persistently missing its inflation target. You can see this in Beth Hammack's recent commentary (below). Her arguments are emotional and political. They lack substantive views on the forward path of inflation/labor. This is the mindset that produces policy mistakes. Oil/gas is the most prominent price in our economy. Their continued rise from the July lows is going to increase the political pressure on the FOMC. Today's CPI data is not decisive enough to offset the political dynamics imo.

2026.08.12 14:15

At 38%, I think a September hike is underpriced here. Personally, I believe that holding is the appropriate policy. However, the committee is increasingly feeling the political pressure of persistently missing its inflation target. You can see this in Beth Hammack's recent commentary (below). Her arguments are emotional and political. They lack substantive views on the forward path of inflation/labor. This is the mindset that produces policy mistakes. Oil/gas is the most prominent price in our economy. Their continued rise from the July lows is going to increase the political pressure on the FOMC. Today's CPI data is not decisive enough to offset the political dynamics imo.