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Vincent
@WhiteCollarExit
Analyst @MilkRoadAI | Finding opportunities across the AI value chain
加入 February 2022
127 正在關注    1.4K 粉絲
$NVDA earnings preview: EPS grew 200% in 2 years and the stock got 50% cheaper. (Save this) The stock is up 67% over that stretch, and the forward multiple fell from 47x to 22x. So, the whole question is what the market is still scared of? The first fear is custom silicon taking accelerator share, but NVLink Fusion lets chips like Amazon's Trainium plug into Nvidia's infrastructure, so a smaller GPU share does not mean a smaller Nvidia bill. The second is competition crushing that 75% gross margin. The chip architecture roadmap incl. Rubin reduces cost per token produced, which lets Nvidia hold premium pricing while customers still get cheaper AI. The third is circular financing. Nvidia has been funding the customers buying its own chips. The $500B facility it lined up was a great move to disconnect from hyperscaler (negative) FCF risk. The real proof is AI revenue paying for the next CapEx wave by itself. My view is that Wednesday comes down to the Q3 guide (assuming GM will remain at >=75%). Street sits near $104B and I want to see >=$107B. I also want signs that Vera, networking and storage are moving from optionality toward meaningful revenue contribution. Those are the numbers I'll be checking Wednesday night, and I'll post what they mean for my positions inside Milk Road PRO. Join before Aug 26, then the price goes up:
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