$SOXX $SMH
30,000 Ft. High Time Frame View: Semis
Image 1: During the 2020s, we have seen three -40% corrections, taking 10 months to play out (March 2020 ofc was much shorter). This could look similar to the recent two 10 month 40-50% corrections, important to note this time the move up was like 2.5x greater in magnitude— even assuming the same correction puts this thing at 350 by End of Q1 2027 (initial March 2026 impulse).
Image 2: Since this bull began (Q4 2022), the best HTF entries have come under the 50 month moving average (image 3 shows the same for March 2020).
Image 3: Over the past decade, every time soxx reverted back under oversold (monthly) it pretty much straight lined it to the 50 RSI level.
This is obviously very HTF and can’t assess things till late Q1 2027. Obviously not a “call” either, just trying to get a hold of the bigger picture here.
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Over the next five months whenever I tweet that I’m “longing semiconductors for a bounce” please just remind me not to
Thanks in advance