Kit Winder, CFA(@WinderKit):Caterpillar $CAT - another one. -9% yesterday. How many times will we see something like this? Excellent company? Yes. AI beneficiary? Yes. But it spent 25 years in a sales multiple range of 1x - 3x. Then in 2025/6, hype took it to 7x. Now, it's crashing back down to earth, down 40% from its recent highs in July. Reaching the GFC lows of 1x sales would imply a further 75% to fall from here. Yes, the pre-bubble average of 2x sales is closer, but "the average is just something you pass through on the way to the other extreme."

Kit Winder, CFA

@WinderKit

Senior Equity Analyst at ByteTree | CFA Charterholder | Focused on quality investing | Views my own, not investment advice.

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Kit Winder, CFA@WinderKit

2026.10.30 11:55

Caterpillar $CAT - another one. -9% yesterday. How many times will we see something like this? Excellent company? Yes. AI beneficiary? Yes. But it spent 25 years in a sales multiple range of 1x - 3x. Then in 2025/6, hype took it to 7x. Now, it's crashing back down to earth, down 40% from its recent highs in July. Reaching the GFC lows of 1x sales would imply a further 75% to fall from here. Yes, the pre-bubble average of 2x sales is closer, but "the average is just something you pass through on the way to the other extreme."