Galaxy Research: Bitcoin reclaiming $82,470 could provide stronger confirmation of a cycle bottom Galaxy Research backtested Bitcoin’s historical bear markets using a rule of a 50%+ closing-price drawdown lasting at least 90 days, covering six completed cycles since 2011 and the current drawdown. The study found that 50-day moving average (50d MA) reclaims are fast but unreliable: 43 of 106 reclaims failed across past bears, and the first reclaim failed in every cycle. By contrast, the 50-week moving average (50w MA) provided a stronger signal, with only 2 failures out of 13 reclaims. BTC is currently trading around $77,500, up 32.4% from the June 30 low, with the 50w MA at $82,470. A weekly close above the 50w MA could provide stronger confirmation that the current cycle bottom is in.