Request for build: conditional stocks.
Prediction markets tell you the odds of something happening. What if they could also price the impact to a stock?
For example:
Will the US allow Nvidia to sell its advanced AI chips to China?
Prediction market: 30% yes.
NVDA trades at ~$220 today.
With tokenized stocks you could have conditional markets that price:
NVDA if yes: $260
NVDA if no: ~$203
So the market isn’t just telling you there’s a 30% chance restrictions get lifted. It’s telling you what it thinks China access is actually worth to Nvidia.
You could do the same for tariffs, elections, regulation, wars, court cases, drug approvals etc.
Prediction markets price the odds. Conditional markets price the impact.
There are probably a few different ways to structure and collateralize this. Would love to see someone figure out the best one on Base.