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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
@_Checkmatey_
Helping navigate #Bitcoin#'s volatility Newsletter Onchain Analyst @_checkonchain Charting Suite
加入 January 2018
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A neat insight that I first heard from my good friend and legend @PermabullNino. This chart shows Thermo-price (lowest red), which is the all-time-average production price for mined coins. Each cycle, the bear has bottomed multiples higher, representing a monetary premium. The first 2011 cycle bottomed on the Thermo-price at a 1x multiple. Then 2015 based above a 2x. The 2018 and 2022 bears bottomed around a 6x or 7x premium. This cycles bear bottomed at around a 12x and we're back to a 16x. Thew other observation is that then area under the oscillator curve is getting larger, suggesting a more sustained monetary premium is developing over production cost with time. Tops have approached the 32x multiple ($313k today), but if this trend of rising floors continues, eventually the floor meets the top...and then shit gets really weird!
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