I worry that the AI safety movement is making many of the same mistakes as 2010s environmentalism: scaring the normies with predictions that are directionally correct but massively exaggerated for effect
What happens is that people freak out about the world ending, eventually the world does not in fact end, and their takeaway becomes that AI safety was all a sham. And this poisons any safety efforts for future models that could actually pose nontrivial x-risk
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