Big news in the industry and potentially historic if it launches. Some thoughts on the potential $BASE token today:
- I don't think this is particularly shocking. The market is likely to price this token in excess of its future cash flows, could be value creative. So they are exploring it. I don't think its a decentralization thing, I think its a business decision.
- The conflicts between $COIN and $BASE are the most interesting questions that will need to be resolved. I assume the only path forward for value capture for equity holders will be via the Coinbase balance sheet holding $BASE tokens. I can't imagine they will airdrop to shareholders.
I have no idea how you would structure the "sale" of the Base cash flows to a foundation or something unless one of the following were true: (a) the spinout will unlock value for shareholders or (b) the shareholders lose control of the cash flows Base currently generates without seeing value. My suspicion is (a) is logical but (b) could be a legal nightmare and Coinbase is smart enough to avoid.
- The timing of this is interesting. Base and Solana have been heavily competing with trying to attract the social, consumer and speculative use cases. This is a very expensive class of crypto to support and win. I have no idea how much Solana spends on this, but Base just got another tool that they can use outside of their existing cash flows. Could be super transient capital they are looking to attract but probably factored into the timing of this decision.
- I don't think anyone knows how to value the token until the second bullet above is designed. The breakdown of what belongs to $COIN and what belongs to $BASE needs to be exceptionally clear for this to work. We did that with $ARB and OCL so I don't think it is impossible, but I think much harder with public shareholders.
Interesting times and will watch closely.