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Serenity
@aleabitoreddit
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I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.
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