Alex Wickham(@alexwickham):Exclusive by @flacqua Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey tells Bloomberg TV a second interest rate hike is “more likely than not” if the Iran war continues He warns a jump in inflation is “quite baked in at this point” even in a scenario where there is a rapid deescalation If energy prices go back to “where they were” before this week’s sharp drop in oil prices, a “second rise is probably more likely than not,” Bailey says This is now the central risk to Andy Burnham’s government. If Trump escalates again in Iran, the next year starts to look very difficult for the PM. Even if he doesn’t Britain isn’t out of the woods Traders now put the odds of back-to-back interest rate rises in December at 50-50 On Bloomberg TV free to watch here:

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Exclusive by @flacqua Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey tells Bloomberg TV a second interest rate hike is “more likely than not” if the Iran war continues He warns a jump in inflation is “quite baked in at this point” even in a scenario where there is a rapid deescalation If energy prices go back to “where they were” before this week’s sharp drop in oil prices, a “second rise is probably more likely than not,” Bailey says This is now the central risk to Andy Burnham’s government. If Trump escalates again in Iran, the next year starts to look very difficult for the PM. Even if he doesn’t Britain isn’t out of the woods Traders now put the odds of back-to-back interest rate rises in December at 50-50 On Bloomberg TV free to watch here: