The Fed hiked 25bp. The biggest move in the dot plot was 2028. The Fed lifted the target range to 3.75–4.00% last night, unanimously, 12–0. First hike since 2023. Prediction markets had it at 87.5% going in, so nobody got paid much for calling it. What actually got repriced was a different question. "How many hikes in 2026" went from "just this one" at 47.5% to "there's another coming" at 65% in a single session — up 20 points on two, down 29 on one, with the zero-hike leg delisted entirely. October moved from 37.5% to 44.5%, December from 60.5% to 68.5%. A separate contract on any further 2026 hike now sits at 81.5%; the one on cuts is 94.8% for none. The reason isn't in this year's dot. It's in the two behind it. The median end-2026 dot moved 30bp, from 3.8% to 4.1%. End-2027 moved 50bp, from 3.6% to 4.1%. End-2028 moved 50bp, from 3.4% to 3.9%. That isn't one more hike. That's the Committee saying it has no plan to come back down for two years.