Caleb Watney(@calebwatney):An interesting argument in the "AI as normal technology" view is that many important skills may plateau near top-human level because the world contains irreducible uncertainty. Maybe you can't be 100x better than Nate Silver at election modeling. We should get a good test of this hypothesis in the next year or two as AI forecasting efforts scale.

Caleb Watney

@calebwatney

head of public policy @coeff_giving, previously co-founded @IFP // the US is the R&D lab for the world and we should act like it

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Caleb Watney@calebwatney

2026.07.04 01:57

An interesting argument in the "AI as normal technology" view is that many important skills may plateau near top-human level because the world contains irreducible uncertainty. Maybe you can't be 100x better than Nate Silver at election modeling. We should get a good test of this hypothesis in the next year or two as AI forecasting efforts scale.