Ben chabot(@chabot_ben):Short interest on the median stock is approaching 2008 levels. Aggregate short interest has been a good predictor of the aggregate equity premium and the ratio of short interest to institutional longs did a good job of predicting individual stock returns for smaller stocks in the past. Other academics have found a robust relationship between high short interest and individual stock crash risk. Just one more data point (like P/E ratios) in favor of the hypothesis that the expected return on stocks is low right now.

2026.09.03 02:49

Short interest on the median stock is approaching 2008 levels. Aggregate short interest has been a good predictor of the aggregate equity premium and the ratio of short interest to institutional longs did a good job of predicting individual stock returns for smaller stocks in the past. Other academics have found a robust relationship between high short interest and individual stock crash risk. Just one more data point (like P/E ratios) in favor of the hypothesis that the expected return on stocks is low right now.

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

2026.09.02 22:08

BREAKING: Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock is up to 3.2% of market cap, the highest level since 2009. This is now approaching the 2008 Financial Crisis peak of ~3.8%. By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, this percentage was ~1.7%. Furthermore, short interest among the most heavily shorted 10% of S&P 500 stocks is up to 8.0% of market cap, the highest in 8 years. Even during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst, short interest never surged to these levels. The short trade is starting to look overcrowded.