When the FOMC announces I will be looking at the SEP projections. In June the committee forecast y/y headline PCE of 3.6 with a core PCE of 3.3 for 2026. Given the June expectations, the committee felt a 2026 year-end Fed Funds rate of 3.8 (median) 3.6-4.1 (central tendency) followed by a rate cut in 2027 was appropriate. Y/Y PCE is currently in-line with the committees' expectations but given the energy shock since last data headline PCE for 2026 will almost certainly exceed the June forecast and core PCE may as well. Staff forecasts of PCE in the remainer of the year will show up in the new SEP projections and the committee's new appropriate policy rate path. I doubt the SEP rate projections will rise as much as the SOFR curve has been projecting (others may agree as the SOFR gave back quite a bit so far today) and if the SEP projections for 2027 come in below the current SOFR curve I expect a rally in both equities and bonds.