How will AI investments drive up Treasury yields?
In a new post on the blog, I look at the channels through which AI investments will increase Treasury Yields.
Blog:
The AI investment boom is expected to increase yields through the traditional channel of increased bond supply and the general equilibrium channel of intertemporal consumption smoothing.
The supple channel depends critically on the amount and maturity of AI debt issuance, and the elasticity of demand for duration risk. Although the size of debt issuance needed to finance the AI infrastructure boom is massive, recent evidence suggests shifts in bond market participation has made the market less sensitive to supply shocks.
Overall, the expected change in yield is highly uncertain but to-date the evidence suggests a notable amount of the AI boom is crowding out other investments and therefore muting its impact on equilibrium yields.
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